DNV’s newly released Energy Transition Outlook: CCS to 2050 highlights a pivotal shift in the global deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS), forecasting that global investment in the sector will reach $80 billion within the next five years.
The report reveals that CCS capture and storage capacity is expected to quadruple by 2030, driven by a significant increase in the project pipeline. This surge in capacity will be primarily fuelled by rapid scale-up in North America and Europe, with natural gas processing remaining the dominant application for the technology.
After 2030, CCS is set to play a critical role in decarbonising hard-to-abate sectors such as steel and cement production, which are projected to become the primary drivers of CCS growth. By mid-century, these industries are expected to account for 41% of annual CO2 captured. Additionally, maritime onboard capture technologies are anticipated to scale in the 2040s, contributing to the decarbonisation of the global shipping fleet.
As CCS technologies mature and scale, associated costs are projected to decrease by approximately 40% by 2050. By that time, global capacity for CCS is expected to grow from 41 MtCO2 per year today to 1,300 MtCO2 annually, representing 6% of global emissions.
The report also underscores the growing importance of carbon dioxide removal (CDR), which is projected to capture 330 MtCO2 by 2050 – roughly a quarter of all captured emissions. Among CDR options, bioenergy with CCS (BECCS) is highlighted as the most cost-effective, particularly in renewable biomass power generation and industrial manufacturing. In contrast, direct air capture (DAC) remains significantly more expensive, with projected costs of around $350 per ton of CO2 through to 2050. Despite this, the expansion of voluntary and compliance carbon markets is expected to drive DAC deployment to 32 MtCO2 by 2040 and 84 MtCO2 by 2050.
While the outlook paints a promising picture for CCS, DNV emphasises that realising this potential will depend heavily on robust policy support. Strong regulatory frameworks, clear economic incentives, and international cooperation are identified as essential pillars for success.
The report calls for the implementation of standards, mandates, and even bans where necessary to enforce emissions reductions and compel deployment across industrial sectors. Deep economic support will also be critical – particularly in the form of public funding and subsidies to help bridge the gap where market forces alone are insufficient to support early-stage or large-scale CCS projects.
Carbon pricing emerges as a key lever for accelerating progress. By mid-century, DNV forecasts that carbon prices in leading regions will need to range from $50 to $250 per ton of CO2, backed by mechanisms such as carbon-border adjustments to encourage global alignment.
Finally, the report highlights the importance of global cooperation, stressing that high-income regions must take the lead in deploying CCS infrastructure while facilitating access to finance, technology, and shared infrastructure for lower-income regions. Differentiated responsibilities and fair burden-sharing will be crucial in ensuring equitable and effective global CCS deployment.
Taken together, these policy measures are not merely supportive – they are indispensable. Without them, DNV warns, current investment momentum may stall, and the world risks falling short of the CCS capacity required to meet its climate goals.
For more details, refer to DNV’s full Energy Transition Outlook: CCS to 2050 report.
In the photo: Cover of DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook: CCS to 2050 report
